John Maynard Keynes wrote this quote in the preface to his book The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. That is the challenge facing investors now: not finding another explanation for the turmoil, but recognizing when the turmoil has become the wrong starting point. The market narrative heading into the U.S. midterm elections is extrapolation dressed as analysis: higher rates, the threat of US$200 oil and geopolitical disorder without end. Each disruption becomes evidence that the next one will be worse. The present acquires the permanence of an economic law. I expect the opposite.